Nickel Market Update

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Nickel prices remained under pressure as high inventories, weak downstream demand and a soft stainless steel market continued to weigh on sentiment. However, cost support and relatively tight availability of high-grade nickel ore are providing some downside protection.

Global & Macro Signals

Canada began imposing additional tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of US goods from September 8, with tariffs on steel products raised from 25% to 50%.

Oil prices climbed to a six-week high amid escalating Middle East supply risks. WTI settled at $92.70/bbl, up 1.33%, while Brent rose 1.37% to $95.79/bbl.

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply, while the US Dollar Index fell 0.26% to 98.91. Markets are pricing in around a 75% probability of a 25-bp Bank of Japan rate hike at the September 18 meeting.

Attention is now focused on the US August CPI and PPI data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.

Nickel Spot & Futures

According to SMM, the average price of #1 refined nickel was 127,850 yuan/mt on September 8, down 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE Nickel 2610 contract fell 0.55% in morning trading to 127,180 yuan/mt.

Short-term range: 126,000–130,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel Sulphate

Battery-grade nickel sulphate prices remained stable. Producers continue to hold relatively high inventories, while some are considering production cuts to accelerate destocking.

Downstream buyers remain cautious, with most demand being covered through long-term contracts rather than spot purchases.

Outlook: Nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term.

NPI Market

The high-grade NPI market remains in a standoff between buyers and sellers. Weak stainless steel demand and declining steel mill profitability are keeping procurement activity subdued.

At the same time, NPI producers are reluctant to accept lower prices, resulting in weak spot liquidity and continued consolidation at low levels.

Stainless Steel

Stainless steel futures extended their decline, with the most-traded SS contract settling at 13,830 yuan/mt.

Spot market sentiment also weakened as steel mill agents lowered quotations to encourage shipments. Despite the traditional September peak season, downstream demand recovery has yet to materialize, while inventory pressure remains elevated.

High production levels, weak end-user demand and narrowing steel mill margins continue to create pressure across the stainless steel supply chain.

Nickel Ore – Philippines

Philippine nickel ore prices remained broadly stable:

* Ni 1.3%: $46/wmt

* Ni 1.4%: $56.5/wmt

* Ni 1.5%: $64.5/wmt

Heavy rainfall in Zambales could temporarily disrupt mining, transportation and port loading. However, the weather impact is not currently expected to significantly tighten overall supply.

Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia remained strong, with imports reaching approximately 8.57 million mt in H1 2026, up 65.1% YoY.

Nickel Ore – Indonesia

Indonesian nickel ore prices remained broadly stable:

* Ni 1.4%: $52.75/wmt

* Ni 1.5%: $59.20/wmt

* Ni 1.6%: $64.10/wmt

Indonesia’s HMA for the first half of September fell to $16,733.33/mt, down 1.33% from the second half of August. The decline has also lowered HPM benchmarks.

Dry-season conditions remain favorable for mining and shipments. Further RKAB quota releases could improve supply expectations, while sufficient smelter inventories and weak restocking demand continue to limit price upside.

Market Outlook

Overall, the nickel market remains fundamentally weak, with high inventories, sluggish demand, pressure from the stainless steel sector and the potential for increased Indonesian supply acting as key bearish factors.

Cost support and limited high-grade ore availability may restrict the downside. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure and trade within a range.

Key factors to watch include US inflation data, SHFE nickel price movements, stainless steel demand, Indonesian RKAB quota releases, smelter restocking activity and HPM premium developments.