Nickel Market Update

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Nickel Market Under Pressure; Near-Term Outlook Weak to Range-Bound

🔹 Antam Performance: Indonesia’s PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) reported H1 net profit of IDR 6.91 trillion, up 34% YoY. Nickel-related sales increased 32% YoY to IDR 10.41 trillion, although overall revenue remained dominated by gold.

🔹 Spot Nickel: SMM #1 refined nickel averaged ¥128,600/mt, down ¥850 from the previous session. Jinchuan nickel premium declined to ¥1,400/mt.

🔹 SHFE Nickel: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) closed the morning session at ¥128,200/mt, down 0.47%.

Short-term range: ¥127,000–132,000/mt.

🔹 Nickel Sulphate: Weak spot demand, adequate inventories and cautious downstream procurement are keeping prices under pressure. The market is expected to remain in destocking mode in the near term.

🔹 NPI: 10–12% high-grade NPI prices fell ¥4.9 WoW to ¥1,122.5/nickel unit. Weak stainless steel demand and sufficient raw-material inventories are limiting restocking activity.

🔹 Stainless Steel: Futures and spot prices weakened amid sluggish end-user demand and rising inventories. However, high production costs and reduced steel mill margins may limit the downside.

🔹 Philippine Nickel Ore: CIF China prices remained stable at $46/wmt for Ni 1.3%, $56.5/wmt for Ni 1.4% and $64.5/wmt for Ni 1.5%. Supply remains ample and demand is sluggish. Low-grade ore faces pressure, while high-grade ore remains relatively firm.

🔹 Indonesian Nickel Ore: CIF prices remained stable at $53.3/wmt for Ni 1.4%, $60.8/wmt for Ni 1.5% and $65.8/wmt for Ni 1.6%. Adequate smelter inventories and weak restocking are limiting upside potential. The market will closely watch September HPM premiums and RKAB supply releases.

Market Outlook

Nickel is expected to remain weak to range-bound in the near term, pressured by soft stainless steel demand, high inventories and cautious restocking. Supply constraints for high-grade ore and cost support could limit the downside.