Nickel Market Update | 21 August 2026

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

🔹 Indonesia RKAB Update

Indonesia’s ESDM has started approving revised 2026 RKAB applications for nickel mines. Some miners previously suspended due to RKAB issues have been allowed to resume production. However, the additional quota approved so far has not been disclosed, so the actual impact on nickel ore supply remains unclear.

The government appears focused on targeted adjustments to ease raw-material shortages at smelters, rather than significantly increasing overall mining quotas.

🔹 Macro

US Treasury’s expansion of long-term Treasury buyback operations triggered a decline in US bond yields and weakened the US Dollar Index by as much as 0.85%. A weaker dollar provided support to base metals, including nickel.

🔹 Spot Nickel

On August 20, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged ¥130,250/MT, up ¥2,050/MT from the previous session.

* Jinchuan #1 Nickel Premium: ¥1,550/MT

* Mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel premium: ¥0–500/MT

🔹 SHFE Nickel

The most-traded SHFE Nickel 2609 contract closed at ¥129,560/MT, up 1.19%.

Nickel prices were supported by the weaker US dollar and expectations of improved liquidity following the Treasury buyback announcement.

Short-term range: ¥125,000–130,000/MT

🔹 Nickel Sulphate

Nickel sulphate prices remained broadly stable. High production costs are encouraging some producers to hold prices firm, while high inventories are prompting others to focus on destocking.

Downstream buyers remain cautious, with many relying on long-term contracts and showing limited interest in spot purchases.

Near-term outlook: Prices likely to remain under pressure.

🔹 NPI

The high-grade NPI spot market remained sluggish. Stainless steel mills showed limited buying interest and mostly sought lower prices.

The gap between upstream offers and downstream buying levels remains wide, keeping the spot market in a stalemate.

🔹 Stainless Steel

SS futures remained volatile but received cost-side support from relatively firm NPI prices.

Weak seasonal demand, cautious downstream buying and rising stainless steel production are limiting upside potential. However, stable inventories and firm raw-material costs are providing a downside cushion.

Near-term trend: Weak consolidation with limited downside.

🔹 Philippines Nickel Ore

Philippine nickel ore prices remained broadly stable:

* Ni 1.3%: $46/WMT CIF China

* Ni 1.4%: $56.5/WMT

* Ni 1.5%: $64.5/WMT

Typhoon-related disruptions affected some ports and shipments, but there was no widespread impact on overall supply.

Outlook: Low-grade ore remains under pressure, while high-grade ore is relatively firm due to stable NPI demand.

🔹 Indonesia Nickel Ore

Indonesian nickel ore supply remains ample, while smelter inventories are relatively high. This is limiting spot procurement.

The market is closely watching:

* Additional 2026 RKAB approvals

* APNI’s proposed 30 MT strategic buffer

* Weda Bay Nickel’s additional RKAB

* Smelter inventory levels and procurement demand

If substantial new quotas are approved, additional supply could put further pressure on ore prices. Limited quota approvals could provide some support to high-grade saprolite ore.

📌 Overall Outlook

Nickel fundamentals remain mixed to weak. Ample Indonesian ore supply, high smelter inventories and cautious downstream demand are limiting the upside. However, a weaker US dollar and supportive macro liquidity expectations are providing short-term support.

Nickel: ₹125,000–130,000/MT range

Bias: Weak consolidation

Key trigger: Indonesia RKAB approvals and downstream demand