Commodity Market Update
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Metal Market
Base metals in the Chinese market mostly traded lower by midday. SHFE copper declined 1.19%, SHFE aluminium fell 0.35%, SHFE lead gained 0.13%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.97%, SHFE tin declined 1.57%, while SHFE nickel rose 0.19%.
Among other metals, the main continuous cast aluminium contract fell 0.84%, alumina declined 0.26%, lithium carbonate dropped 0.69%, silicon metal fell 0.92%, and polysilicon declined 1.17%.
Ferrous Metals
Ferrous metals were mostly higher. Iron ore declined 0.21%, rebar fell 0.27%, while HRC gained 0.09%. Stainless steel rose 0.60%. The most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.36%, while coke advanced 1.20%.
LME Base Metals
LME base metals were mostly lower. LME copper declined 0.34%, zinc fell 0.59%, while lead gained 0.11%. LME aluminium and tin edged lower, with losses below 0.10%. LME nickel rose 0.42%.
Precious Metals
COMEX gold declined 0.47%, while COMEX silver fell 1.29%. In China, SHFE gold gained 0.15%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.12%.
Platinum futures fell 0.18%, while palladium futures declined 0.61%.
The most-traded European container shipping futures contract gained 0.99% to 1,737.5 points.
Copper Outlook
SHFE copper prices continued to pull back intraday, encouraging some downstream restocking and releasing pent-up buying demand among traders. Market activity improved significantly compared with the previous session.
Standard-quality copper traded relatively smoothly at around a CNY 350/mt premium, providing support to spot premiums.
Overall, lower copper prices are encouraging the release of rigid demand, while the backwardation structure is also providing support. However, elevated premiums may limit aggressive buying amid the recent price rally.
Spot copper prices against the SHFE copper September 2026 contract are therefore expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, with the overall price centre likely to consolidate around current levels.
Macro Update – India
The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued opinions aimed at further stimulating suburban markets and boosting county-level consumption.
The measures focus on upgrading existing commercial facilities, supporting the renovation of traditional department stores and ageing shopping malls, optimising the distribution of branded chain stores, discount retailers and fresh-food e-commerce outlets.
The government also plans to deepen the renovation of markets and stores, upgrade township commercial centres and agricultural markets, develop rural fairs, and improve village-level logistics service stations and convenience stores.
RBI Liquidity Update
The Reserve Bank of India conducted no fresh reverse repo operation today while rolling over ₹469.7 billion in overnight reverse repos.
Against ₹565.5 billion of overnight reverse repos maturing today, the RBI effectively withdrew around ₹95.8 billion of net liquidity from the banking system.
US Dollar & Fed Outlook
The US Dollar Index rose 0.05% to 99.63.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September stands at 65%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 35%.
For October, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 51.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 41.3% and a 50-basis-point hike is 7.4%.
US Treasury Yields
US Treasury yields broadly increased on Monday. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, its highest level since June 2007.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points to 4.724%, while the 2-year yield increased by more than 1 basis point to 4.182%.
The expiry of the 60-day deadline for US-Iran peace talks, along with Iran’s refusal to extend the agreement, added to geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for further clues on monetary policy and future rate trends.
The Fed voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Three members—Harker, Kashkari and Logan—dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point hike.
Reuters Fed Survey
A Reuters poll showed that 94 of 104 economists expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September.
Meanwhile, 80 of 104 economists expect rates to remain within the same range through the end of 2026.
Recent weaker US employment and retail-sales data, along with subdued inflation, have reduced expectations of further Fed rate hikes. However, continued Middle East uncertainty could support safe-haven demand for the US dollar while also pushing oil prices and Treasury yields higher.
Economic Data to Watch
Key data releases scheduled for today include:
* UK June three-month ILO unemployment rate
* UK July claimant count
* Germany August ZEW economic sentiment
* Eurozone August ZEW economic sentiment
* US weekly ADP employment change
* US July housing starts
* US building permits
* US import price index
* US industrial production
* US pending home sales
Markets will also monitor Xiaomi and Baidu earnings calls.
Crude Oil
Both major crude benchmarks moved higher, with WTI crude up 0.70% and Brent crude gaining 0.63%.
Supply concerns supported oil prices as prospects for a US-Iran agreement weakened. US President Donald Trump said he would not extend the expiring Iran agreement, while disagreements remain over issues including the Strait of Hormuz.
US Energy Secretary Wright said measures would be announced in the coming days to help refiners increase fuel production. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds around 300 million barrels, with inventories expected to rise above pre-conflict levels once tensions with Iran ease.
Market Outlook
Overall, base metals remained under pressure in the Chinese market, while copper’s recent correction is encouraging some downstream restocking and spot-market demand. Elevated US Treasury yields, uncertainty over Fed policy and renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions remain key factors for metals, the dollar and crude oil in the near term.