Base Metal Update
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Copper Futures: LME copper opened at $14,108.5/mt on Friday night, dipped to $14,099.5/mt early in the session, then drifted higher with the price center moving up to a high of $14,196/mt, and finally closed at $14,172.5/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume rose to 13,000 lots, and open interest rose to 269,000 lots, up 3,237 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,920 yuan/mt on Friday night, fell to 107,650 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center moved straight up to a high of 108,320 yuan/mt, after which it stayed high and moved sideways in a narrow range, and finally closed at 108,200 yuan/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 26,000 lots, and open interest fell to 204,000 lots, down 815 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reduced positions.
Aluminium Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 23,960 yuan/mt in the night session on August 14, with a high of 24,000 yuan/mt and a low of 23,835 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,945 yuan/mt, up 0.25% from the previous close. Prices pulled back to MA5 (23,988.91); short-term moving averages turned downward, with MA10 and MA20 forming overhead resistance, while MA40 and MA60 provided support below. Open interest fell notably during the session, mainly driven by bears reducing positions. Technically, on the 4-hour chart, MACD DIFF crossed below DEA to form a bearish crossover, the green histogram expanded significantly, short-term bullish momentum faded rapidly, and prices entered a pullback phase. LME aluminum opened at $3,238.5/mt on August 14, with a high of $3,260.0/mt and a low of $3,221.5/mt, and closed at $3,245.0/mt, up 0.22% from the previous close. Prices consolidated at highs and ended with a small bullish candlestick; they pulled back from the prior high of $3,384.5/mt, found support after pulling back to MA20 (3,243.86), and traded below MA5 (3,268.58), while MA40 and MA60 continued to cap prices from above. Trading volume pulled back, while open interest increased, showing characteristics of bulls adding positions. Technically, on the daily chart, MACD DIFF (16.09) ran above DEA (5.41), the red histogram narrowed slightly, and bullish momentum weakened marginally.
Lead Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day.
On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots.
It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum.
Zinc Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,745/mt. In early trading, LME zinc consolidated and drifted lower around the daily moving average, hitting $3,720/mt near the start of the European session. After the European session began, bulls entered on dips and LME zinc gradually stabilized and rebounded. During the night session, bulls continued to push, driving LME zinc to drift higher and touch $3,784/mt. Near the close, capped by the upper Bollinger Band, LME zinc pulled back slightly and ultimately closed up at $3,762/mt, up $17/mt, a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume decreased to 9,829 lots, while open interest increased by 306 lots to 255,000 lots. Last Friday, the SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 25,750 yuan/mt. In early trading, bulls added positions and pushed SHFE zinc to rise quickly, touching 25,925 yuan/mt. It then consolidated and pulled back, capped by the upper Bollinger Band and amid profit-taking. Near the close, after dipping to 25,690 yuan/mt, it rebounded slightly and closed at 25,740 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.33%. Trading volume decreased by 34,646 lots to 51,270 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,626 lots to 97,541 lots.
Tin : LME 3-month tin closed overnight at $56,025/mt, up $200, up 0.36%, with an intraday high of 56,455 and a low of 55,620; it remained firm at elevated levels among London base metals, and with low inventory support, tin’s price resilience stood out.
China: SHFE tin 2609 closed the daytime session at 427,380 yuan/mt (+0.04%); the night session was quoted at 429,620 yuan/mt, up 1,560, +0.36%.At the open at 09:02 on 8/17, 2609 was quoted at 431,530 yuan/mt, up 3,470, +0.81%, with an open of 428,580, a low of 427,660, a high of 432,650, an average of 430,670, trading volume of 79,367 lots, and open interest of 43,925 lots—at Monday’s open, bulls added positions and pushed higher; 429,000 (below the 430,000 round-number level) was the first test level in early trading.