Commodity Market Update – 14 August 2026
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Base Metals
China’s base metals market remained under pressure during the midday session, with most major contracts trading lower.
* SHFE Copper: -0.20%
* SHFE Aluminium: -1.20%
* SHFE Lead: -0.81%
* SHFE Zinc: -0.51%
* SHFE Tin: +0.17%
* SHFE Nickel: -1.12%
The most-traded foundry aluminium futures contract declined 1.43%, while alumina futures edged lower. Lithium carbonate gained 2.23%, silicon metal rose 1.63%, and polysilicon futures advanced 1.27%.
Ferrous Metals
Ferrous metals traded with a positive bias overall.
* Iron Ore: +0.42%
* Rebar: +0.43%
* Hot-Rolled Coil: +0.71%
* Stainless Steel: -1.97%
* Coking Coal: +1.25%
* Coke: -0.29%
LME Base Metals
LME base metals traded broadly lower during the session.
* LME Copper: -0.32%
* LME Aluminium: -0.23%
* LME Lead: -0.37%
* LME Zinc: -0.45%
* LME Tin: -0.24%
* LME Nickel: -0.30%
The broad weakness reflects cautious sentiment across industrial metals, with traders monitoring global demand prospects, currency movements and expectations for US monetary policy.
Precious Metals
Precious metals came under selling pressure in both international and domestic markets.
* COMEX Gold: -0.90%
* COMEX Silver: -1.16%
* SHFE Gold: -1.94%
* SHFE Silver: -2.36%
* Platinum Futures: -2.21%
* Palladium Futures: -3.33%
In the spot platinum market, mainstream prices were quoted at a ₹2–3/gram discount to the PT2610 contract. Some deeply discounted cargoes were cleared, while the import price spread narrowed.
China Liquidity
The People’s Bank of China injected a net CNY 348 billion into the financial system during the day. Weekly net liquidity injection stood at CNY 250.5 billion, providing additional liquidity support to the domestic financial market.
US Dollar & Federal Reserve Outlook
The US Dollar Index declined 0.07% to 99.89.
US July PPI data came in below market expectations, pointing to a moderation in producer-level inflation. Lower energy and food costs also supported the view that inflationary pressures are easing.
The data has reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, although policymakers continue to balance persistent inflation risks against signs of softer employment growth.
CME FedWatch
* September: Rates unchanged: 65.2%
* September: 25 bps hike: 34.8%
* October: Rates unchanged: 50.1%
* October: 25 bps hike: 41.8%
* October: 50 bps hike: 8.1%
Future US inflation and employment data will remain crucial for determining the Fed’s policy path.
Australian Dollar & RBA Outlook
Market expectations for another 25 bps RBA rate hike by November have increased as Australian inflation remains above the central bank’s target range.
Swap-market pricing currently indicates approximately a 45% probability of a November rate hike, compared with around 38% previously. Traders will closely monitor upcoming inflation and employment data for further clues.
Key Economic Data to Watch
Market participants will focus on several important economic releases today:
* China July Total Electricity Consumption
* US July Retail Sales
* US August Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
* US June Business Inventories
* France July Final CPI
* Eurozone Q2 Revised GDP
* Eurozone Employment Data
* Canada June Wholesale Sales
A new domestic refined fuel price adjustment window will also open, while India’s National Energy Administration is expected to release electricity consumption data around the middle of the month.
Crude Oil
Both major crude benchmarks edged higher:
* WTI: +0.09%
* Brent: +0.06%
Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risks but gains were limited after the IEA and OPEC lowered their demand forecasts.
The situation surrounding Iran remains tense, although there has been no significant fresh escalation. Meanwhile, the US diesel crack spread has approached $100 per barrel, close to levels seen during the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict in March.
Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at around 9 million barrels per day, although uncertainty remains over the actual size of the potential supply deficit.
Market Outlook
The softer US PPI reading and weakness in the dollar could provide some support to precious metals and industrial commodities. However, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, Middle East tensions, oil prices and global demand is expected to keep volatility elevated.
Base metals: Near-term sentiment remains cautious, with most LME and SHFE contracts under pressure.
Precious metals: Prices may remain sensitive to US inflation data, dollar movements and changing Fed rate expectations.
Crude oil: Geopolitical risk remains supportive, but weaker global demand expectations could limit the upside.
Key Takeaway
Markets are currently balancing softer US inflation data against geopolitical risks and uncertain global demand. Traders should closely monitor upcoming US economic data, Fed expectations, Chinese demand indicators and developments in the Middle East.
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
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