Base Metal Fundamental Outlook

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Copper – Bullish

* SMM inventories declined by around 900 MT week-on-week to 118,000 MT, indicating continued destocking.

* Typhoon-related disruptions have affected logistics, while the availability of high-quality copper remains tight.

* Elevated prices are weighing on demand, but constrained supply continues to provide underlying support.

* Outlook: Mildly bullish bias expected in today’s session.

Aluminium – Positive

* The aluminium market continues to face a fundamental deficit.

* Persistent destocking of aluminium ingot inventories is supporting the market.

* Despite a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, underlying fundamentals remain firm.

* Outlook: Consolidation at higher levels is likely, with downside risks appearing limited.

Lead – Neutral

* Maintenance and production cuts at some primary and secondary producers are tightening regional supply.

* Inventories have declined marginally in some consumption areas.

* However, overall social inventories continue to remain elevated.

* Outlook: Range-bound consolidation is likely, with supply-side developments remaining a key market driver.

Zinc – Positive

* LME zinc inventories remain at relatively low levels.

* Export activity is contributing to destocking in domestic zinc inventories.

* Both LME and SHFE zinc continue to find support at elevated price levels.

* Outlook: Positive bias with consolidation at higher levels.

Tin – Bullish

* The shutdown of mining, beneficiation and tailings operations at Yinman Mining continues to affect supply.

* Production recovery in Myanmar’s Wa State is expected to remain limited at around 40–50%.

* A full recovery in production may be delayed until 2027, keeping the global supply outlook tight.

* Outlook: Strong fundamental support with a bullish bias.