Base Metal Overnight Update
Advisory Bazaar Info Services
Copper Futures
LME copper opened at $14,141/mt on Friday night and touched an intraday high of $14,173/mt. After early-session volatility, prices weakened steadily and slipped to $14,006/mt near the close before settling at $14,022/mt, down 0.50%.
Trading volume stood at 19,800 lots, while open interest rose by 3,254 lots to 258,000 lots, indicating fresh bearish position building.
The most-traded SHFE Copper 2609 contract opened at ¥108,010/mt and initially rose to ¥108,140/mt before coming under pressure. It touched a low of ¥107,130/mt and settled at ¥107,160/mt, down 0.80%.
Trading volume was 45,000 lots, while open interest declined by 6,056 lots to 215,000 lots, suggesting long liquidation.
Aluminum Futures
SHFE Aluminum closed at ¥23,950/mt, down 0.13%. Despite the marginal decline, the medium-term technical structure remains bullish, with prices positioned around the key moving averages.
The MACD remained in a positive configuration, with the histogram expanding, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume declined to around 49,000 contracts, reflecting a cautious approach near recent highs.
SHFE Aluminum Core Trading Range: ¥23,700–24,300/mt
LME Aluminum closed at $3,280/mt, up 0.31%. Prices remained above the key short- and medium-term moving averages, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
The MACD showed a low-level golden-cross formation, suggesting that bearish momentum is fading and bullish momentum is beginning to strengthen.
LME Aluminum Core Trading Range: $3,250–3,320/mt
Lead Futures
LME Lead opened at $1,870/mt and remained largely range-bound during the session. Prices briefly attempted to reclaim the $1,900/mt level but failed to sustain the move.
The contract later drifted lower toward $1,885/mt before settling at the same level, up marginally by 0.03%.
The most-traded SHFE Lead 2609 contract opened at ¥15,690/mt and quickly moved lower, finding support around the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It eventually settled at ¥15,665/mt, down 0.29%.
Zinc Futures
LME Zinc opened at $3,764/mt and initially climbed to $3,798/mt. However, renewed selling pressure pushed prices lower throughout the session. The contract touched a low of $3,697/mt before settling at $3,698/mt, down $71.5/mt or 1.90%.
Trading volume declined to 14,673 lots, while open interest increased by 5,089 lots to 254,000 lots, indicating fresh short-position building.
The most-traded SHFE Zinc 2609 contract opened at ¥25,705/mt and briefly rose to ¥25,730/mt before coming under selling pressure. It touched a low of ¥25,485/mt and settled at ¥25,505/mt, down ¥440/mt or 1.70%.
Trading volume stood at 88,818 lots, while open interest declined by 5,768 lots to 125,000 lots.
Tin Futures
The three-month LME Tin contract closed at $55,245/mt on Friday, down 1.52%. The contract traded between an intraday high of $56,000/mt and a low of $54,900/mt.
Following the release of US non-farm payroll data, the US dollar and Treasury yields declined, providing a supportive backdrop for precious and base metals. However, LME tin still ended lower during the Friday electronic session, as the positive impact of the payroll data had not yet fully translated into the overnight market.
In China, SHFE Tin 2609 settled at ¥434,910/mt during the daytime session, down ¥440/mt or 0.10%. The contract retreated after a sharp intraday rise but demonstrated relative resilience against broader market weakness.
Market Outlook
Base metals traded on a mixed-to-weaker note during the overnight session. Copper and Zinc faced notable selling pressure, while Aluminum maintained a firm bullish technical structure. Lead remained largely range-bound, while Tin showed relative resilience despite closing lower.
Overall, market participants are likely to remain focused on US macroeconomic data, dollar movements, global interest-rate expectations and demand signals from China for further direction across the base-metals complex.