Base Metal Fundamental Outlook

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Copper Outlook

Copper prices are expected to remain firm with a positive bias today, supported by a weaker US dollar after the joint US-Japan intervention in the currency market and softer-than-expected US June PCE inflation data. On the supply side, improved arrivals of imported and domestic copper have slightly eased tightness, while downstream buyers continue to purchase only on a need-based basis due to seasonal demand weakness and elevated prices. Although SMM copper inventories increased week-on-week to 111,900 mt, they remain below last year’s level, indicating that overall supply conditions are still relatively supportive for prices.

Aluminium Outlook

Aluminium prices continue to find support from easing expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes, declining domestic aluminium ingot inventories, and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the upside may remain capped by expanding overseas production capacity, weak seasonal demand in China, and lingering macroeconomic uncertainties. In the near term, aluminium is expected to trade in a firm but range-bound pattern.

Lead Outlook

Lead prices are likely to remain under pressure as rising deliveries into warehouses have pushed social inventories higher. Demand from the lead-acid battery sector remains subdued, with several downstream producers maintaining cautious production schedules or preparing for seasonal shutdowns. While maintenance at primary and secondary smelters may tighten supply in August, weak consumption is expected to keep lead prices in a soft consolidation phase.

Zinc Outlook

Zinc maintained a positive trend in both the LME and SHFE markets, supported by a weaker US dollar and renewed buying interest. Despite intermittent profit-booking at higher levels, overall market sentiment remains constructive. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to trade with a mildly bullish bias while remaining within a limited range.

Tin Outlook

Tin fundamentals remain broadly supportive due to weather-related disruptions to tin ore mining and logistics in Myanmar, which continue to restrict raw material availability. Although Indonesian tin ingot exports are expected to improve, supply concerns have not been fully resolved. On the demand side, solder production has strengthened, but downstream acceptance of higher spot prices remains limited. Demand is expected to improve further ahead of the late-August production ramp-up for new Apple and Huawei devices, providing additional support to tin prices.