Commodity Market Update: Mixed Trend in Base Metals, Crude Oil Jumps on Middle East Tensions

Advisory Bazaar Info Services LLP

Base Metals Trade Mixed

Domestic base metals traded with a mixed bias during the midday session. SHFE Copper declined 0.27%, Nickel slipped 0.30%, and Zinc eased 0.28%. Meanwhile, Aluminium gained 0.88%, Lead rose 0.38%, and Tin advanced 0.44%.

Among other industrial metals, Casting Aluminium climbed 0.61%, Alumina edged up 0.19%, and Lithium Carbonate surged 1.91%. However, Silicon Metal fell 0.73%, while Polysilicon extended its losses with a further decline of 1.16%.

Ferrous Metals Performance

Ferrous metals remained mostly under pressure. Iron Ore slipped 0.61%, Rebar traded slightly lower, and Stainless Steel declined 0.17%. HRC managed to gain 0.15%. In the raw materials segment, Coking Coal fell 0.12%, whereas Coke advanced 0.85%.

LME Metals Stay Positive

Most London Metal Exchange (LME) metals traded higher. LME Aluminium rose 0.19%, Lead gained 0.24%, Tin jumped 1.12%, and Nickel increased 0.65%. Copper was the only major metal in negative territory, down 0.13%.

Precious Metals

COMEX Gold fell 0.34%, while COMEX Silver gained 0.31%. In the domestic market, SHFE Gold declined 0.80% and SHFE Silver fell 0.83%. Platinum and Palladium futures also remained under pressure, losing 0.78% and 0.94%, respectively.

Macro Highlights

China’s total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, reflecting continued economic resilience. The country also announced its 15th Five-Year Climate Plan, targeting a 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 2030 compared with 2025 levels.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continued liquidity support through reverse repo operations to maintain stable money market conditions.

Focus on the US Federal Reserve

The US Dollar Index eased to 101.3 as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Markets currently assign nearly a 70% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, although expectations for a possible September rate hike remain alive.

Crude Oil Surges

Crude oil prices rallied sharply after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude gained nearly 3.92%, while Brent crude advanced 3.55%, providing fresh support to the commodity complex.

Market Outlook

Commodity markets are expected to remain highly volatile ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments, crude oil prices, and upcoming global economic data for further direction. While higher energy prices could support metals, uncertainty over monetary policy may keep market sentiment cautious in the near term.