Edible Oil Market Update

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

International markets remain dull; rumors of duty hike fail to make a major impact

International markets are quiet today as there are no fresh positive triggers.

• Rising palm oil stocks in Malaysia are putting pressure on the KLC.

• CBOT soybean oil remains highly volatile due to uncertainty over the US biofuel policy and the EPA’s request to update the 2026 biofuel quota.

• Expectations of a large soybean crop in Brazil continue to weigh on the CBOT soy complex.

There is no strong reason for a major rally in KLC, but downside appears limited as global holidays and palm oil discounts are providing support.

Duty hike rumors: Companies halt sales – but the reality is different

Rumors of an import duty hike are dominating the local market.

• Several companies have stopped sales due to uncertainty.

• Both KLC and CBOT soybean oil slipped from higher levels — a typical reaction when the market expects a duty hike.

However, analysts believe this decline is not due to duty hike fears, but because of weakness in crude oil.

Since most oilseed crops have already been harvested, a duty hike at this time is considered illogical.

Market experts remain divided:

• Some expect a possible duty increase.

• Most believe no duty hike is likely.

Until an official announcement is made, it is better to avoid unnecessary speculation.

Soybean Oil: Approaching resistance, caution advised

Soybean oil prices increased by ₹1–1.5/kg today — largely due to duty hike rumours.

• Weak crude oil pushed international markets off their highs.

• Indore/Nimach line is trading near the key resistance of ₹1250.

• Long-term trend remains strong, but rumour-driven spikes may lead to a minor correction (₹1–1.5/kg).

Loose soybean oil has failed to break the ₹1250–1260 range for the past 3–4 months.

Outlook for the next few weeks

Soybean oil is likely to remain sideways and volatile due to:

• ongoing rumours

• US biofuel policy uncertainty

• high stock levels

Since prices are near the upper end of the range —

➡️ It is better to wait for a small correction.

Conclusion

The edible oil market is currently rumor-driven and moving sideways.

• International cues are dull.

• Local markets are reacting artificially to duty-hike rumors.

• Soybean oil is at a strong resistance level — a hand-to-mouth strategy is advisable.

• Palm oil downside remains limited, while mustard may stay weak due to increased sowing.

Any decision should be based purely on data and price levels until an official announcement is made.