📊 Base Metal Fundamental Update

Advisory Bazaar Info Services

Date: 15 July 2025

🔹 Copper – Trump’s threat of a 100% secondary tariff on Russia increased global uncertainty, pressuring copper prices. Demand weakened, while suppliers held firm on offers. SMM national inventory rose by 3,900 mt to 147,600 mt. A stronger US dollar added further downside pressure.

🔹 Aluminum – Domestic sentiment remains positive, but CPI concerns and tariffs may push inflation to 2.9%. Operational capacity fell slightly due to project replacements, while alumina costs rose. Demand remains weak in the off-season, with inventories rising again. Short-term pressure likely to continue.

🔹 Lead – As SHFE 2507 delivery nears, downstream buyers prefer cheaper smelter-sourced cargoes. Central China supply is tight due to delays in new capacity and unplanned maintenance. Inventories are shifting, and prices are finding some support near 17,000 yuan/ton.

🔹 Zinc – LME zinc dropped due to rising overseas inventory and tariff concerns. SHFE zinc showed mild recovery after positive Chinese financial data. However, overall macro sentiment remains cautious.

🔹 Nickel – Domestic “anti-rat race” sentiment supported prices despite external uncertainties. Nickel is expected to remain range-bound between 118,000–123,000 yuan/mt.

🔹 Tin – Ore supply remains tight in Yunnan due to maintenance. Demand weakened post-installation in the PV sector and due to high prices in electronics. Spot buying is cautious, with smelters firm on prices but seeing limited transactions.