Commodity Update
US Dollar Index
• The US Dollar Index fell 0.1% overnight to 104.21.
• On Tuesday, US consumer confidence data fell to its lowest level in four years.
• Market expectations are that US tariff policies will slow economic growth, increase trade tensions, and push inflation higher.
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that he expects only a 25 basis points cut in the benchmark interest rate by the end of the year.
• The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week but signaled a 50 basis points rate cut by the end of this year.
• Markets are now awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday for further policy guidance.
Key Economic Data Releases (Today)
• UK February CPI (YoY)
• UK February Core CPI (YoY)
• UK February Retail Price Index (YoY)
• UK February Unadjusted Input PPI (YoY)
• Switzerland March Credit Suisse/CFA Economic Expectations Index
• US February Durable Goods Orders (Preliminary Data)
UK Outlook
• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will announce the Spring Budget Statement today.
• The Bank of England (BoE) recently warned markets against being overly optimistic about rate cuts.
• BoE raised its inflation peak forecast for this year, signaling that borrowing costs may decrease at a slower pace compared to other major central banks.
• BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann stated that inflationary pressures have not fully eased and warned against premature policy easing.
• UK PMI data supported the pound’s strength:
• S&P Global Services PMI: 51 → 53.2 (showing significant improvement)
• Composite PMI: 50.5 → 52 (biggest increase in six months)
Metal Markets (LME)
• LME Copper: +1.39%
• LME Zinc: +0.76%
• LME Tin: +1.92%
• LME Lead: +2.23%
• LME Aluminium: -0.29%
• LME Nickel: +1.02%
Metal Markets (SHFE)
• SHFE Tin: +2.01%
• SHFE Copper: +1.3%
• SHFE Nickel: +1.26%
• SHFE Lead: +0.74%
• SHFE Zinc: +0.27%
• Alumina: +0.68%
Ferrous Metal Chain
• Iron Ore: +0.32%
• Stainless Steel: +0.26%
• Rebar: +0.37%
• HRC: +0.18%
• Coking Coal: Modest Gain
• Coke: +1.29%