Fundamental Analysis of Base Metals

Copper

• Macro Factors: Influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the stability of the dollar index.

• Prices: Suppliers were actively buying due to the contango structure, but the spot market remained weak.

• Expectations: Downstream processing companies anticipate further price declines.

• Outlook: Copper prices may find support at lower levels due to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and upcoming domestic macro events.

Aluminum

• Macro Factors: Domestic efforts to boost consumption vs. increasing foreign trade barriers.

• Prices: Despite rising supply and falling costs, prices remain strong.

• Inventory: Stocks are building up post-holidays, but demand is gradually recovering.

• Outlook: Short-term volatility is expected due to increasing demand and limited supply growth.

Lead

• Inventory: Stock levels in warehouses are rising, but demand remains weak.

• Prices: Shifted from premium to discount, putting downward pressure on prices.

• Outlook: Limited scrap battery supply may provide some support, but overall, prices are likely to remain under pressure.

Zinc

• Prices: LME and SHFE zinc showed slight bullish movements, but overall social inventories continue to rise.

• Macro Factors: Weakness in the U.S. dollar provided support, but consumption remains below expectations.

• Outlook: Zinc prices may continue sideways movement, with potential support from macroeconomic improvements.

Conclusion:

• Copper remains under limited support, while aluminum continues to hold firm.

• Lead is under pressure, whereas zinc is likely to stay stable.

• The dollar index and global trade policies will play a crucial role in determining price trends.