SMM Morning Comments

Category:-Metal | 14-Jan-2025 09:48 PM

Copper - Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,124.5/mt, initially reaching a high of $9,131.5/mt before fluctuating downward, hitting an intraday low of $9,063.5/mt. It then rebounded and maintained slight fluctuations towards the end of the session, finally closing at $9,094/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 276,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 75,510 yuan/mt, initially declining to a low of 75,140 yuan/mt before climbing to an intraday high of 75,520 yuan/mt. Towards the end of the session, the center of fluctuations shifted downward, and it ultimately closed at 75,320 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 144,000 lots. 

Aluminum - Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2503 contract opened at 20,270 yuan/mt overnight, hitting a high of 20,285 yuan/mt and a low of 20,205 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,265 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.05%. LME aluminum opened at $2,561/mt overnight, reaching a high of $2,591.5/mt and a low of $2,561/mt, and closed at $2,573.5/mt, up $5/mt or 0.19%.

Lead - Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,975.5/mt. The US dollar index hit a new high again, suppressing base metals, and LME lead showed a fluctuating downward trend throughout the day. During the session, it hit a low of $1,941/mt, giving back most of the previous day's gains. Ultimately, LME lead closed at $1,948/mt, down 1.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2502 contract opened at 16,580 yuan/mt. As the delivery date approached, lead ingot inventory increased as expected. SHFE lead quickly declined after the opening and then fluctuated for a long time between 16,450-16,500 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 16,490 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. Its open interest reached 37,594 lots, an increase of 614 lots compared to the previous trading day.

Zinc - Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,863/mt. At the beginning of the session, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts caused LME zinc to fluctuate rangebound around the daily moving average. During European trading hours, increased long positions pushed LME zinc to a high of $2,905/mt, but later, increased short positions drove the center of LME zinc down to around $2,865/mt. It eventually closed lower at $2,861/mt, down $1.5/mt or 0.05%. Trading volume decreased to 10,178 lots, while open interest increased by 636 lots to 219,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with resistance formed by various moving averages above. Meanwhile, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2502 contract opened higher at 24,355 yuan/mt. Early in the session, reduced long positions led SHFE zinc to decline along the daily moving average, hitting a low of 24,075 yuan/mt. Subsequently, increased long positions resulted in a "V"-shaped rebound, with the center fluctuating along the daily moving average. It eventually closed lower at 24,175 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.27%. Trading volume decreased to 50,963 lots, and open interest fell by 37 lots to 96,149 lots.

Nickel - LM nickel prices slightly rebounded today to $15,670/mt (Ni contained), strengthening spot cost support. Currently, the spot profit for producing nickel sulphate using MHP is in a loss state, while the profit margin for producing nickel sulphate using high-grade nickel matte remains. Demand side, most precursor plants have basically completed January nickel salt stocking, with only a small portion still having restocking demand. Market inquiry activity was weak today. Supply side, nickel salt plants currently maintain low levels of finished product inventories, leading to tight supply. Overall, under the tight supply situation, prices still have room for an upward trend.


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