SMM Morning Comments

Category:-Metal | 29-Jul-2024 08:16 AM

Copper - Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,132.5/mt, initially peaking at $9,147/mt, then trending downward to a session low of $9,076/mt. By the end of the trading session, it rebounded but then fell again, hitting a session low of $9,071/mt, and finally closed at $9,073/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest was 295,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2409 copper contract opened at 74,250 yuan/mt, initially fluctuating upward to a high of 74,540 yuan/mt, then trending downward to a session low of 74,120 yuan/mt. By the end of the trading session, it rebounded and maintained slight fluctuations, finally closing at 74,410 yuan/mt, up 0.42%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots, and open interest was 175,000 lots.

Aluminum - Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE 2409 aluminum contract opened at 19,290 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,395 yuan/mt and a low of 19,280 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,370 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt, or 0.62%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,275/mt, hit a high of $2,298/mt and a low of $2,270/mt, and closed at $2,281/mt, up $3.5/mt, or 0.15%.

Lead - Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,035/mt. During the Asian session, it consolidated around the intraday moving average. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward and reached a high of $2,083.5/mt. Before the close, it slightly declined and closed at $2,076/mt, up $40.5/mt, an increase of 1.99%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE 2409 lead contract opened at 18,665 yuan/mt. It initially declined to a low of 18,485 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it was boosted by the strengthening of LME lead and climbed to a high of 18,745 yuan/mt. After a slight consolidation, it closed at 18,725 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.27%.

Zinc - Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,684.5/mt. In the early session, LME zinc rose to a high of $2,704/mt, then fell back to near the average daily line. By midday, LME zinc dropped to a low of $2,648/mt, then rebounded to near the average daily line. At the end of the trading session, LME zinc fluctuated around the average daily line and finally closed lower at $2,663/mt, down $29/mt, a decrease of 1.08%. Trading volume reduced to 9,095 lots, and open interest increased by 635 lots to 220,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2409 contract opened at 22,600 yuan/mt. In the early session, SHFE zinc fell to a low of 22,575 yuan/mt. After the opening, it rose to a high of 22,735 yuan/mt, then fell back to near the average daily line. Subsequently, it fluctuated above the average daily line and finally closed higher at 22,720 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.53%. Trading volume reduced to 59,801 lots, and open interest increased by 217 lots to 93,660 lots. 

Nickel - Last week, SHFE nickel continued its downward trend, down approximately 2.67% WoW. By the close on Friday, SHFE nickel recorded 126,700 yuan/mt. Last week, nickel prices were influenced by both fundamentals and macro factors, experiencing wide fluctuations. Macro side, in Q2 2024, the US real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized pace, higher than the expected 2.0% and significantly rebounding from 1.4% in Q1. This indicates a strong recovery in the US economy in Q2. Alongside economic growth, inflationary pressures eased. The PCE price index grew by 2.6% in Q2, lower than 3.4% in Q1. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices and is the US Fed's most important inflation measure, grew by 2.9%, also lower than the previous value of 3.7%. Multiple data indicate the market expectation for the US Fed to make its first rate cut in September has increased. It is necessary to continuously monitor the US Fed's actions and the upcoming FOMC meeting next Wednesday.

Tin - In the night session last Friday, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 248,210 yuan/mt, up by 2,000 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.81%. The highest price was 248,600 yuan/mt, and the lowest was 245,680 yuan/mt.


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